AS a double act, it’s a perfect match up.
One is slight and straight-talking - the other round and wise-cracking..
Brace yourselves for the Laurel & Hardy show, without the laughs.
The Budget double-hander from Brendan Howlin and Michael Noonan will
be anything but a slapstick comedy.
It will be more of a horror chiller delivered in full gaudy
technicolour, and there’ll be no need for 3D glasses for added impact.
When things were simply black and white. Stan and Oliver teamed up for
their first starring feature roles in a film titled Pardon Us.
As if that wasn’t suitable enough for some kind of modern day
adaptation by Bren and Mick, another was The Fixer-Uppers.
And boy, do our ministerial duo have some fixing-up on their hands.
There have been so many kites flown in a blatant bid to soften us up
that there will be only a few surprises today and tomorrow.
It will only be a matter of scale as long as it all adds up to savings
of somewhere near €4 billion in State coffers.
The biggest problem we’ll have is figuring out how the reality squares
with the flood of leaks - some would say scaremongering - over the
past few weeks.
But don’t be lulled into an austerity weary state of resignation
however, as there will be a number of unexpected rabbits pulled out of
the hat.
For sure we know that VAT at the top rate will go up two percentage
points to 23 per cent, and we will be hit with a flat rate €100
household charge.
Capital gains, motor, carbon taxes and Dirt will all get a
significantly hike, with the axe falling heavily on education and
health.
The threat to student fees and in particular any changes in social
welfare will be a major factor and all eyes will be on the Labour
backbenches.
Rebel Tommy Broughan has already jumped overboard by opposing the bank
guarantee extension just like he, and all his backbench colleagues,
did a year ago when on the Opposition benches.
With rumours of some internal bickering between the parties, there’s a
strong likelihood that a few more will bite the bullet in the coming
days.
But with the Coalition enjoying a 110/55 majority, a few strays won’t
sink the ship.
There’s no chance of a repeat of the collapse of the Fine Gael-Labour
Government in 1982 when then Finance Minister John Bruton failed to
push his Budget through when he tried to slap VAT on children’s shoes.
Michael Noonan, who was part of that Government along with current
Taoiseach Enda Kenny, is taking no chances and put down an early
marker stressing there were "no plans" to change the zero VAT rate on
"children's clothes and footwear".
All the planning that has gone into the Budget might actually count
for little in the greater scheme of things.
Throughout all the marathon meetings in Government Buildings, there
was a constant eye kept on Brussels.
While desperately trying to appease the Troika and keep the bailout
payments on stream, the Cabinet will have been increasingly aware that
a euro meltdown could change everything dramatically.
But it’s on with the show regardless and ahead of the crucial European
Council Summit to save the single currency on Friday, the spotlight is
on Leinster House.
It remains to be seen whether the logic of spreading the pain over two
days will work.
Brendan Howlin is the first to take to the field in this first ever
game of two halves, unveiling what is grandly called his Comprehensive
Expenditure Report at 2.30 in the Dail.
All going well after his public spending cuts are laid bare, Michael
Noonan is next up tomorrow afternoon with the Budget as we know it.
The Finance head honcho will tell us about the tax measures needed to
complement his partner’s chops.
Then we’ll settle back for the traditional pantomime with Fianna Fail
leading the chorus of indignation despite delivering us to this sorry
pass and savage Budgets before this one.
All that will be missing is the retort from Oliver Noonan: “Well,
here's another nice mess you've gotten us into.”
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